Perfect Anecdote: the wave value is so high...

Photo by TKO:

File Under: Perfect Anecdote

The other day, I was walking down to Trestles for a lunch time surf (in the name of research of course!) and I had a nice chat with a guy who had cut out of work early to surf. He was from Manhattan Beach - so he had driven over 60 miles (one way) and then committed to the 20 minute walk down to the surf. We talked about quality of the waves, the crowds, etc. In response to the discussion about the crowds he said, "you may only get a couple of waves, but the wave value is so high that it's worth it".

So this guy was willing to drive 120 miles round trip, give up 1/2 a day of work, walk 40 minutes round trip, and brave the crowds at Trestles for a couple of hours in the water - all for one or two waves, because the value of those waves was so high - they were so much fun- it made it all worth it.

Why is it so crowded in the line up: Do The Math

If you take the coast of California between San Francisco to the Mexican border, which is roughly 500 miles, and grossly estimate that there is one class “A” surf break every 50-miles, that would total 10. Then, say there is one class “B” break very 5-miles which adds 100 breaks to the total. Once again, let’s assume that there is yet another class “C” break every 5-miles to add another 100 breaks, making a grand total of 250, with, in truth, most of the surfers being drawn to the better third.

250 Surf spots

Now, let’s say that there are 500,000 active surfers in California, and that on any sunny weekend day with a 4-foot swell running, that 10% will hit the surf. Now, let’s consider that at least 1/3rd of those 250 breaks will be completely off-duty due to swell direction. That makes for 50,000 surfers sharing 250-less 83 breaks=50,000/167 which means that on average, there will be 299 surfers for each working surf break along the coast between San Francisco and the Mexican border.

299 Surfers per spot

Now let’s be real, the population is probably 2/3s in the south and 1/3 north, so the distribution at breaks would be weighted to the south. Therefore, let’s say 66% X 50,000 surfers=33,000 surfers for the working breaks in the south, and 17,000 for the working break in the north.

2/3 of those surfers live in Southern California

Of course, quantifying “the better break attracting more than their share” theory means that, let’s say, 35,000 surfers surfing the top third working breaks (56) or about 625 for each of those which leaves only 15,000 for the other 111, or 155 per.

625 surfers per spot in the South

155 surfers per spot in the North

In the real world, what actually happens is that over 500 surf Trestles during a day in roughly five shifts from dawn to dusk-the same at Malibu, and Huntington Pier and San Onofre, while most other breaks get way less.

500 surfers a day at Trestles, Malibu, Huntington & San Onofre on a good day

But any way you cut it the total mass of surfers and approximate number of surf breaks is undeniable.

This is, of course, completely theoretical and statically askew, but the numbers don’t lie. We have outgrown our supply.

From The Surfers Journal blog

Who's Surfing Lowers?

Surfline just posted a little photo expose on "Who's Surfing Lowers". I mapped where they came from here:


View Who's Surfing Lowers in a larger map

Although far from a random sample, I thought it was interesting that it looks somewhat familar to this map that is the result of about 1000 responses to an Internet-based survey:





Surfers are clearly willing to "go the extra mile" to surf Trestles.

How many surf sessions?

Earlier I posted on how many surfers there are in the US. This is a follow up about how often they surf. The same 2001 marine recreational survey used in that previous post also estimated how many visits to the beach surfers made in a year.

As the graphic above illustrates, there were a total of about 76.5 million surf visits in the US in 2000.

This means that surfers averaged about 22 surf sessions per year.

The top states for annual surf sessions were Hawaii, California, Florida, and North Carolina. The number of days of participation (visits) for the top five states could not be estimated because there was an insufficient sample size per state after the top 4.

At Trestles (a top quality wave with a avid local surf population), survey respondents reported an average annual visitation of 109 visits/year.

A study on surfer illness in Oregon found that surfers averaged 77 surf visits per year.

If I had to guess, I would say that you'd find that the average number of annual surf sessions is bimodal - there is a large number of surfers who average 5-15 days per year and then there are more avid groups along the coasts that average closer to 70-150 visits a year. More information on the behavior of surfers is needed to figure this out. Hopefully, the Surf First surfer survey will help us start to answer this question and others.

Surfenomics: Trestles & Superbanks

As part of their latest green issue Surfing magazine wrote this feature comparing the economics impacts of Trestles and Superbanks.

Click here for a readable version of the page

Bring Back Kirra

Save Trestles

Cost of oil & gas affecting surfers

Despite the annoying title this MSNBC article provides an interesting perspective on about how high petroleum costs are impacting surfboard production costs, international surf travel and even local surf visits. As surfers become more discerning about their surf checks and visits Surfline has seen an upswing in subscriptions.

An interesting quote relevant to the use of the Travel Cost Method to estimate the economic value of surfing at Trestles:

"The high gas prices still haven't dissuaded some die-hard surfers from enjoying their sport — expensive or not.

As the sun set over San Clemente's famed Trestles surf break on a recent summer day, Alan Harrison peeled off his wet suit and swore he would never choose money over surfing.

"If you love it, you can't change it for anybody or anything," said the 23-year-old Harrison, who spends $40 a week to get to Trestles from his inland home. "Even if gas went to $10 a gallon, I'd still do it. I'd find a way. It's an addiction."

Surfers come in all ages, shapes and sizes...

© Kymri Wilt/Mira Terra Images

On February 6, 2008, California Coastal Commission held a 14-hour hearing and voted to deny the construction of a Toll Road through San Onofre State Beach.

I attended the hearing along with thousands of others - many were surfers, many were environmentalists, and all were passionately professional about making their voices heard. There were CEO's, attorneys, moms with toddlers, commuters, activists, teachers, and all walks of business professionals, male and female, who took the day off work to give testimony or support. The definition of a stereotypical surfer was blown right out of the water. Surfers come in all ages, shapes and sizes. However, most of the signs, t-shirts, websites and promotional advertising seemed targeted to an outdated punkish youth subculture and did little to embrace today's real-life surfer - someone like myself (self-employed, vegetarian, wife, mother, homeowner, hybrid-driver, world traveller, photographer, etc.).

More...

Save Trestles

Photo: Branimir Kvartuc

On February 6th, in front of over 2500 activists, the California Coastal Commission voted 8-2 and found that the proposed 241 Toll road is not consistent with the California Coastal Act. A big win for coastal conservation and protection of surfing at Trestles.

Associated Press story about the hearing

There were at least two interesting things about this issue that relate to surf economics.

First, both the Coastal Commission staff and the AP story above referred to the high usage of Trestles (almost 400,000 visits a year) and also the economic impact to the City of San Clemente ( up to $13 million/year) in their reports on the issue.

Second, the TCA who is promoting the toll road argued that the road was necessary for access and also that surfers were being selfish and didn’t want the road to “expose” their local surf spot. These arguments are easily countered by showing a map of where surfers come from in order to surf at Trestles - they come from all over southern California - and that Trestles is one of the most heavily used surfing spots in the US. Access doesn't seem to be a limiting factor!


Origin of surfers visiting Trestles based on zip code
(Nelsen, C. et. al. 2007. Socioeconomics of surfers at Trestles Beach. Shore & Beach 74(4))